In recent years, climate change has intensified summers in Chile, with temperatures surpassing 38 °C in the south-central zone. However, this season the Maule and Ñuble regions—Chile’s main blueberry-producing areas—have recorded more moderate conditions, a trend expected to continue through the end of February.
Patricio González, academic and researcher at the Irrigation and Agroclimatology Research and Transfer Center (CITRA) at the University of Talca, told Blueberries News: “The Maule and Ñuble regions have experienced a climatically more moderate summer compared to 2023 and 2024, years when temperatures reached 39 and even 40 degrees in Ñuble.”
The expert noted that maximum temperatures of 36 and 37 °C were recorded in January, while during the first half of February temperatures have not exceeded 32 or 33 °C.
“It is striking, because during the same period last year we had reached 38 degrees. There is a noticeable difference. For the remainder of February, temperatures are expected to remain at moderate levels, between 30 and 33 degrees in Maule and Ñuble. Farther south, in Biobío, La Araucanía, and Los Ríos, highs would range between 27 and 28 degrees,” he explained.
Benefits of the La Niña phenomenon
The current season has been influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, a cold event that affects the equatorial Pacific and, in the case of central Chile, helps moderate temperatures.
“Blueberries do not tolerate extreme temperatures above 34 or 35 degrees well. This more moderate summer, influenced by La Niña — which is now coming to an end — has been favorable. We have not experienced sunburn or significant water or heat stress during January and February,” González stated.
The specialist added that the crop’s thermal requirements have been met. “Blueberries require around 1,200 degree days, a condition that was even exceeded this season in December and January, accumulating more than 1,600 degree days. Likewise, winter chill hours were adequately fulfilled.”
“No extreme conditions are expected through the end of February. There is less than a 20% probability that temperatures will exceed 38 degrees, as occurred last year. Most likely, they will remain between 30 and 32 degrees, which will favor ripening and harvesting,” he concluded.
Late varieties: March and April with limited rainfall
Regarding late varieties, whose harvest extends between March and April, González projected an equally favorable outlook.
“We estimate that rainfall will begin in mid-May. Therefore, March and April should see limited precipitation and moderate temperatures—conditions that will continue to benefit the harvest of late varieties,” he indicated.
Although rainfall was recorded at the beginning of February, it was neither intense nor abundant enough to cause damage to the fruit.
According to the expert, “This 2026 season has been very favorable from a production standpoint. All signs indicate that volume expectations will be met, largely due to the moderate climate we have experienced—something we have not seen with this level of stability in the past four years.”
Caution in the face of a changing climate scenario
Despite this season’s strong performance, the expert warned that these conditions should not be assumed to repeat in the future. “We are in a context of climate change, where extremes prevail. This summer represented the moderate phase, but that does not mean we will not experience temperatures above 38 degrees again next year.”
In this regard, he emphasized the need to optimize the use of water resources. “Central Chile closed 2025 with more than a 30% rainfall deficit, a situation that demands efficiency and technology in irrigation management,” he noted.
He therefore stressed that “water must be protected and used in a technified manner. It is essential to inspect canals, prevent leaks, and ensure efficient irrigation systems. For fruit production in central Chile, there are three major challenges: decreasing rainfall, reduced snowpack, and thermal extremes that can exceed 37 or 38 degrees.”
Finally, González urged continued vigilance: “This summer we experienced a period of favorable conditions. But global trends indicate that upcoming summers and winters could once again be warmer. We must not become complacent,” he concluded.
