“Climate is a chaotic system with many variables,” said Felipe Costa, International Director of the International Center for Research on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN). In an interview with Blueberries News, he shared key insights into this year’s climate outlook.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also known as Global El Niño, is a disruption of the ocean–atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific that significantly impacts weather patterns around the world.
“ENSO is the full name of the phenomenon; it has a warm phase, which we call El Niño, and a cold phase, known as La Niña,” Costa explained.
Under normal conditions, winds blow from South America toward Australia. However, when they weaken or reverse direction, they are typically accompanied by a warming of the Pacific Ocean.
“If the winds reverse and sea surface temperatures increase, the El Niño phenomenon develops; conversely, if the winds strengthen in their usual direction and the ocean cools, we are facing La Niña,” he explained.
Given the vast extent of the Pacific Ocean, these variations have the potential to affect climate patterns across multiple regions of the world, particularly in countries along its coastline. Generally, El Niño brings increased rainfall to the coast of Ecuador, northern Peru, and central Chile, while La Niña produces the opposite effect, leading to reduced precipitation in these areas.
“Every El Niño and every La Niña is different; some are more intense than others. This means the ocean may warm or cool to a greater or lesser extent. The stronger the anomaly, the greater the potential for the phenomenon to impact the climate,” the specialist added.
ENSO monitoring is conducted within a specific oceanic band of the Pacific Ocean known as the Equatorial Pacific. “To begin classifying conditions as El Niño or La Niña, positive or negative sea surface temperature anomalies equal to or greater than 0.5°C are considered. It is also essential that the warming or cooling be sustained over time; if it occurs for only one month and then returns to normal, there is no real expectation that the event will develop,” Costa noted.
CIIFEN continuously analyzes monitoring data and forecasts issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in order to provide updated information that supports climate-related decision-making. “We monitor oceanic and atmospheric variables on a weekly basis, as there must be coupling between the two to confirm that we are facing El Niño or La Niña conditions. If only one of them changes, the event does not materialize,” he stated.
Weak La Niña
A slight but sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific is currently being observed. “We are experiencing La Niña conditions, characterized by a Pacific that is cooler than normal. This pattern was intermittent for much of 2025, but since September it has become more consistent, with persistent cooling that continues to this day,” said the International Director of CIIFEN.
Regarding its intensity, he explained that this is a weak event, with cooling in the range of 0.5°C to 0.7°C. The intensity of the phenomenon is directly related to its ability to influence the climate, as the greater the temperature anomaly, the stronger its impact on weather conditions.
Regarding the outlook for the current event, Costa indicated that, based on ongoing monitoring of present conditions and given the mild nature of the anomaly, the cooling is expected to gradually dissipate during February and March.
Coastal El Niño
According to a recent CIIFEN statement, in January 2026 warmer-than-normal temperatures began to be observed off the coast of Ecuador, specifically in the Niño 1+2 region. In addition, intermittent wind pulses associated with rising sea surface temperatures were recorded.
The forecast indicates that a Coastal El Niño event could develop starting in April. Unlike Global El Niño, where temperature anomalies extend across the equatorial Pacific, Coastal El Niño is a more localized phenomenon, characterized by a rise in ocean temperatures off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.
“A possible Coastal El Niño is projected to develop starting in April, but it is important to bear in mind that forecasts are statistical estimates and therefore carry a degree of uncertainty. The further we move away from the present, the greater that uncertainty becomes,” the expert warned.
In general, this type of event is associated with prolonged rainfall and above-average temperatures.
CIIFEN called for strengthened climate monitoring of atmospheric and oceanic conditions along the Peruvian and Ecuadorian coasts in order to “anticipate potential extreme events that have historically caused economic losses and social impacts.”
Costa also emphasized the need to have action plans in place for the rainy season. “The most important aspect of planning is to consider all the factors that come into play during this period, follow the monitoring and forecasts issued by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and make decisions based on that information,” he stated.
In terms of potential impacts on blueberry production, international advisor Sebastián Ochoa explained that this type of event “triggers climate shifts that affect the floral induction process in plants, making it necessary to implement differentiated crop management practices rather than those typically used in a normal year.” He therefore encouraged producers to seek technical guidance from CASM Blueberries.
Climate Variability or Climate Change: What’s Behind the Current Patterns?
These phenomena often generate public debate regarding their origin and their relationship to climate change, making it necessary to distinguish between the two concepts.
In many cases, anomalies are attributed to climate change when they are in fact the result of climate variability—two distinct concepts that are often confused. While climate change unfolds gradually, is less immediately noticeable, and extends over long periods of time, climate variability is more evident and temporary in nature.
“Climate variability refers precisely to phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña, where variables change over a relatively short period and then return to their normal conditions. Climate change, on the other hand, involves slow but permanent modifications, such as the sustained rise in temperatures, which do not revert to previous levels and persist over long periods,” Costa explained.
Although it is not possible to state definitively that these events have necessarily become more intense—since major episodes have also been recorded in the past—there is evidence of increased frequency. “In the past, transitions typically occurred from La Niña to a neutral phase and then to El Niño. Today, in some cases, La Niña ends and El Niño develops almost immediately. Climate analysis requires many years of data and uncertainty always remains, but apparently these events are occurring more frequently,” the specialist concluded.
