Increasingly variable weather has become one of the main challenges for blueberry production in the United States. Oregon, Washington, California, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida account for the vast majority of the country’s production, and all of them face— to varying degrees— the effects of increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.
Cort Brazelton, board member and shareholder of Fall Creek Farm & Nursery, warns about the impact of an extreme weather event that occurred during the winter: “The domestic production season will be affected by a severe cold event that hit the Southeast, causing extensive damage to the crops and, in some cases, to the plants in the field. In particular, production in Florida and Georgia is expected to be lower in volume as a result of this event.”
Mexico is also facing difficulties
This challenging scenario does not affect only U.S. blueberries. Brazelton notes that Mexico will also face difficulties in meeting demand: “Planted area has been significantly reduced—mainly due to the decline in Sinaloa—and there are ongoing challenges with yields due to increasing pests, diseases, climatic issues, and other plant stress factors.”
California: Stability, but No Growth
Regarding California, the expert is cautious. “Production appears to be progressing reasonably well according to the reports I have seen, but the state has not expanded much in planted area, so I would expect little change compared with the previous year.”
The overall outlook for the spring window is clear: “Supply will likely be lower relative to demand, and there will especially be a shortage of high-quality fruit compared with a demand that is increasingly seeking better products,” Brazelton concludes.
Summer: Still Too Early to Project
For the summer season, which involves the Pacific Northwest, Michigan, New Jersey, and North Carolina, Brazelton explains: “As we move further into bloom and pass the frost-risk period, we will be able to make a better estimate of production volumes and timing.”
An Industry Entering a Phase of Maturity
According to Brazelton: “The blueberry industries in the United States and Canada went through a long period of growth from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, mainly with traditional varieties and some new genetics introduced at that time. That growth has slowed, and the industry is entering a phase of maturity.”
How it will respond to changes in supply—greater year-round availability and a growing share of high-quality fruit—remains an open question. “The availability of land, water, and deep capital markets continues to be a strength of the sector. However, labor remains a persistent challenge, and the adoption of new technologies, genetics, and production systems requires a level of talent and long-term financial commitment that the industry is still building,” he concludes.
