BY GONZALO SALINAS, SENIOR FRESH PRODUCE ANALYST AT RABOBANK SOUTH AMERICA, AND DAVID MAGAÑA, SENIOR HORTICULTURE ANALYST AT RABOBANK NORTH AMERICA.
The blueberry industry has become the most global category within the berry complex. Unlike other fruits, which depend on limited commercial windows or predominantly regional dynamics, the blueberry now operates under a structural intercontinental logic. Flows between hemispheres are permanently integrated, allowing for year-round supply to major markets.
This condition means that the market no longer relies exclusively on a specific off-season but on a continuous mechanism where multiple origins alternate with one another. Therefore, price and volume analysis must be interpreted from a structural perspective and not merely a cyclical one.
Recent data from the United States and Europe shows a consistent signal: demand continues to expand. During import seasons, variations typical of perishable products, such as logistical adjustments, climatic events, and production overlaps, are observed, but the general trend in recent years has been unequivocally increasing in terms of volume.
More importantly, the average price per season has also shown a positive trajectory from a historical perspective. The combination of higher volumes with sustained average prices reveals a structural shift in demand. From an economic standpoint, the combination of prices and volumes imported into the United States and Europe shows that the seasonal equilibrium point continues to shift positively.
This phenomenon is particularly evident in the U.S. import season. The North American market has demonstrated an increasing capacity to absorb significant supply increases without experiencing a structural deterioration in average prices. In Europe, the pattern is similar, although with a more moderate slope, influenced by differences in disposable income, retail structure, and geographical fragmentation.
The 2025-26 season reinforces this trend. Peru reached record shipment volumes to the United States, and although prices in the first part of the campaign were lower than the previous cycle, during the period of highest shipment concentration, values surpassed those of the 2024-25 season. This behavior is especially relevant, as the weeks of highest pressure test the real depth of the market.
The signal is clear: structural absorption remains strong. Supply growth has not permanently eroded the category’s value. On the contrary, the market has shown resilience, supported by consumption fundamentals that remain valid.
High Penetration, Low Consumption: The Real Margin for Expansion
In the United States, approximately 55% of households buy blueberries at least once a year. At first glance, this penetration level exceeds the average for other fruits, confirming the apparent massification of the category. However, a more detailed analysis reveals a concentrated consumption structure: the top 10% of buyers accounts for nearly half of the total fresh blueberry sales value in the country, and the highest-frequency segment—the top 5% of households purchasing blueberries—accounts for 35% of the spending in the category. This creates a market with a broad base of occasional buyers and a reduced core of intensive consumers.
This structure simultaneously represents a challenge and an opportunity: expand the group of frequent consumers to increase purchase frequency and capitalize on the still-available space to raise per capita consumption.
Annual blueberry consumption in the U.S. stands at around 1.3 kg per person. While this level is significant compared to other fruits, it remains well below strawberry consumption—over 3 kg—and bananas—over 8 kg per person annually. This gap indicates a substantial potential for expansion for blueberries, whose inherent characteristics make them an attractive food.
Blueberries are a ready-to-eat product, requiring no peeling or additional preparation. In an environment where the time available for cooking or food processing is increasingly limited, this characteristic becomes a structural competitive advantage over other fresh fruits.
Price, Elasticity, and New Generations
Future growth will not solely depend on the intrinsic attributes of the product. Price remains a determining variable, especially for younger segments. Older members of Generation Z are entering the workforce and beginning to define their consumption patterns, highlighting an affinity for healthy, fresh products, but with budgetary constraints typical of early career stages. In this segment, price sensitivity is higher.
Blueberry purchases tend to increase when promotions are offered or when the perceived quality is clearly superior. This suggests that price-income elasticity is not homogeneous across all market segments.
To consolidate structural growth, the category must advance on two fronts simultaneously: maintaining high-quality standards that justify premium prices for intensive consumers and improving accessibility for price-sensitive segments.
Genetic evolution and production efficiency will be crucial in this balance. If unit costs decrease thanks to higher yields, better varietal adaptation, and technological advancements, it will be possible to maintain margins without fully passing on the pressure to the final consumer.
Europe: From “Trading Down” to the Search for Value
In Europe, recent dynamics also provide relevant signals. After the impact of Covid-19 and the strong inflationary process of 2022-2023, a “trading down” phenomenon occurred, where consumers prioritized price over differentiating attributes.
From 2025 onwards, a shift began to be observed: in several European markets, wages grew above inflation, allowing for a recovery in real purchasing power. This adjustment changed purchasing behavior: consumers no longer seek the lowest price alone, but rather a clear relationship between price and quality.
For blueberries, repeat purchases will increasingly depend on firmness, uniform taste, appropriate shelf life, and arrival consistency, where volatility in quality can disproportionately impact consumer perception.
As in the U.S., the space for expansion in Europe remains significant. The category is still young compared to other fruits, and retail sophistication opens opportunities for segmentation by variety, origin, and sensory attributes.
A Market Maturing Without Saturating
The combination of growing penetration, still moderate per capita consumption, and solid health fundamentals explains why the market has managed to absorb significant supply increases without collapsing average prices. In some markets, blueberries have ceased to be a niche fruit but still have not reached the mass consumption levels of other established categories. This intermediate position is strategic: it allows for continued growth without facing immediate saturation.
The primary risk is not a lack of demand, but inconsistency in the consumption experience or misaligned supply growth that generates periods of price overpressure. As long as productive expansion continues accompanied by homogeneous quality, increasing efficiency, and commercial discipline, the structural shift in demand can be sustained over time.
The global blueberry market operates under a mature framework of commercial integration; however, from a consumption perspective, there remains significant room to expand purchase frequency, effective market penetration, and value added per unit.
Supply Structuring and a New Commercial Discipline
While demand has shown solid fundamentals, the main challenge for the industry has been on the supply side. Production growth—particularly in Peru—has been of such magnitude that the global market has had to rapidly adapt to increasing volumes concentrated within relatively narrow marketing windows.
For several seasons, the excessive concentration of shipments within a few weeks generated immediate downward pressure on prices. However, the 2025–26 season showed a different signal: despite record export levels, price dynamics during the peak volume period were more favorable than in previous cycles. This reflects a collective learning process within the Peruvian industry. Adjustments in pruning practices, harvest timing, and shipment scheduling indicate greater awareness of competitive windows and market absorption capacity.
The result has been a transition from a “pyramid-shaped” export structure toward a “trapezoidal” one, where peak volumes are distributed across six, seven, or eight weeks with greater stability. This reduces price volatility, improves retail planning, and helps sustain more consistent margins for producers and exporters.
Continuous Annual Supply and Limits to Uncoordinated Growth
Blueberries are no longer dependent on isolated supply windows. Today, supply is practically continuous throughout the 52 weeks of the year, with sequential production from Peru, Chile, Mexico, Morocco, the United States, and other origins.
Rapid growth concentrated within a single window generates systemic effects. Consequently, the most dynamic expansion toward the United States is concentrated during the Peruvian season—from October to February—with limited overlaps. During March–April and the U.S. domestic season, expansion occurs at a more moderate pace.
This asymmetry introduces a structural constraint on misaligned growth and has contributed to sustaining the category’s average value. The industry continues to expand, but not simultaneously and uncontrollably across all production windows, effectively acting as a price stabilizer. Maintaining this logic of orderly expansion will be crucial: in an integrated market, competition occurs not only between countries but also between weeks.
China: Production Transition and the Redefinition of Trade Flows
China has significantly increased its domestic production in recent years. Although it is not yet a major net exporter, its exports have grown from 1,000 to 7,000 tons. This expansion is already modifying global trade flows: Chilean blueberry exports to China have declined, while Peru has reached record shipments to that destination.
Over a five- to ten-year horizon, China may be able to supply a large share of its domestic consumption, concentrating imports in specific segments such as premium fruit, differentiated varieties, or supply programs linked to major global operators. However, this shift may not necessarily affect markets such as the United States or Europe and could instead stimulate regional markets in Asia, creating indirect opportunities for South American exporters, particularly Peru and Chile.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Exchange Rates
The competitiveness of producing regions is influenced by trade policies, tariff adjustments, and exchange rate fluctuations. The weakening of the U.S. dollar against certain local currencies reduces the competitiveness of exporters who sell in that currency. In Mexico, currency appreciation and increases in the minimum wage—which has nearly tripled in less than a decade—have altered the cost structure, directly affecting seasonal profitability.
Consequently, price analysis can no longer be limited to physical supply and demand dynamics. Financial and macroeconomic variables now play a direct role in determining margins and the capacity to sustain industry growth.
Increasing Competition and Discipline as Basic Industry Requirements
As more producing countries enter the market, competitive pressure is expected to intensify. Greater global production implies a structural tendency toward lower average prices in the medium term. Under these conditions, discipline in volume management across supply windows and productive efficiency are no longer competitive advantages—they have become minimum requirements.
The Peruvian case demonstrates that rapid growth can coexist with relatively stable prices when weekly supply distribution is managed in an orderly manner. In a global market, competitiveness depends on the ability to strategically integrate into a continuous annual system in which every week matters.
Genetics, Efficiency, and the Democratization of Consumption
Sustained growth depends largely on advances in genetics and production practices. New premium genetics offer improvements in firmness, flavor, postharvest life, and yields, while also facilitating mechanized harvesting, which reduces unit costs and enables more accessible prices. This may increase purchase frequency and attract new “super-users”—regular consumers who value consistent quality in year-round blueberry supply.
Global expansion also introduces new challenges. Morocco continues to grow vigorously, Egypt is progressing from a smaller base, and Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and several Eastern European countries have emerging production and experimental trials that could rapidly expand supply. More production implies stronger competition and greater price pressure, reinforcing the need for efficiency, appropriate varietal selection, and strategic cost management.
Mexico, meanwhile, illustrates that growth is not automatic. After years of accelerated expansion, production has stagnated due to phytosanitary challenges, varietal adaptation issues, and rising labor costs. Efficiency and discipline remain fundamental in mature markets.
Retail, Market Segmentation, and Category Sophistication
Retail has evolved rapidly. During the inflationary period of 2022–2023, discount supermarkets strengthened their market share, while premium formats have regained momentum, resulting in a “K-shaped” consumption pattern characterized by simultaneous growth in both lower- and higher-income segments.
This dynamic opens opportunities for category segmentation: standard blueberries positioned in discount formats, and differentiated products—by variety, origin, or sensory attributes—for consumers willing to pay more for a premium experience.
E-commerce reinforces this trend, although consistency becomes critical. Repeat purchases depend on firm fruit, uniform flavor, and consistent quality, even after long transport distances from South America to the United States and Europe.
Consumption Trends: Health, GLP-1 Medications, and Category Growth
Blueberry consumption benefits from structural health trends. New dietary guidelines in the United States promote the consumption of fresh fruits, while the growing use of GLP-1 medications—prescribed for weight management or type 2 diabetes—has begun to reshape purchasing habits. Consumers are reducing purchases of processed foods and prioritizing healthy, convenient, ready-to-eat options.
These trends reinforce blueberries’ competitive position relative to processed and ultra-processed foods. Their perception as a healthy fruit increases the likelihood of repeat purchases, particularly among GLP-1 users, who often allocate additional budget space for healthier foods. With a consistent supply of high-quality blueberries and effective positioning, the category has the potential to expand its market penetration and consolidate structural demand.
The Next Frontier for the Blueberry Industry: Sophistication and Discipline
The blueberry industry has matured while continuing to expand. Year-round availability has been largely achieved, but the next competitive frontier will revolve around greater sophistication: consistent quality, intelligent segmentation, advanced genetics, and commercial discipline. The global expansion of supply may moderate average prices, shifting the industry’s focus toward efficiency, strategic planning, and orderly volume management. In this context, maintaining the “trapezoid” supply logic and avoiding extreme concentration will remain crucial to sustaining industry value.
The combination of growing demand, expansion of new producing origins, genetic innovation, market segmentation, and retail sophistication positions blueberries as a strategic category within the global fruit basket. Ultimately, success will depend not only on how much the industry grows, but on how it grows without losing value.
