El Niño is already present in both the central Pacific and off the coast of South America and could intensify in the coming months, generating warmer conditions and increased rainfall in some regions of Peru during the upcoming rainy season.
Felipe Costa, international director of the International Research Center for the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), said that the evolution observed since the beginning of the year confirmed the development of the climate event. “We can indeed say that we are already experiencing an El Niño phenomenon. Both the Global El Niño, which is located in the central Pacific, and the Coastal El Niño, which is along the South American coast,” he noted.
According to him, following the end of a weak La Niña episode, which lasted from September 2025 to January–February 2026, ocean warming conditions began to develop, first giving rise to a Coastal El Niño event and later to a Global-scale El Niño event.
Costa indicated that the signals began to appear during the first quarter of the year and that, as the months progressed, the likelihood of the phenomenon’s development increased until it consolidated into current conditions.
Higher temperatures and potential impacts on agriculture
The specialist warned that both the Global El Niño and the Coastal El Niño favor an increase in air temperatures, a situation that could persist throughout the rest of the year and even extend into the summer of 2027. “There is a higher probability of above-average air temperatures for the entire year, including the summer of 2027,” he said.
Regarding rainfall, he explained that behavior will be more variable depending on geographic location. However, he noted that during the upcoming rainy season, above-normal accumulations and even occasional extreme events could be recorded in some areas.
“For this rainy season, we could expect above-normal rainfall, with occasional extreme events, but overall the seasonal total will likely be higher than normal,” he said.
For Peru’s main blueberry-producing regions, the effects associated with rainfall would not be immediate during the winter months, but would begin to become more relevant as the season progresses toward the end of the year.
Peak expected by late 2026
Regarding the future evolution of the event, Costa explained that the expected behavior differs between the Coastal El Niño and the Global El Niño. While the coastal episode reached its most intense phase between February and March, ocean conditions remain warm and could strengthen again during the next southern summer.
In the case of the Global El Niño, climate models project that maximum intensity would be reached between November and December. “The peak of the event would be between November and December in terms of Global El Niño warming,” he said.
Currently, ocean warming remains at what are considered weak levels, close to 0.5°C above normal. However, forecasts suggest it could exceed 2°C in the coming months. “It is expected to at least become a moderate event, and there is a high probability that it could become a very strong event,” he warned.
Climate-smart agriculture
In response to this scenario, the international director of CIIFEN emphasized the need to strengthen so-called climate-smart agriculture, incorporating monitoring and management tools based on climate information.
In this line, Costa noted that the agricultural sector has many factors that can be controlled, such as soil, irrigation, and agronomic management. “Climate is the only factor that cannot be controlled. It is a factor we must prepare for, use available information, and work with the other variables that we can control,” he explained.
Among the main recommendations, he mentioned the installation of weather stations and soil moisture and temperature sensors, as well as monitoring systems that allow the building of long-term historical records to support productive decision-making.
Costa will address these topics during his participation in the 1st International Specialization Course in Blueberry Production, to be held in Chiclayo, where he will analyze the current El Niño conditions and their possible implications for different producing regions in Peru.
