The global blueberry industry surpassed 300,000 planted hectares in 2025, more than double the area recorded a decade ago, while production reached 2.3 million tonnes. And there is still room for further expansion: projections point to nearly 3.4 million tonnes by 2029.
But alongside increasing supply, factors such as quality, segmentation, efficiency, market development and execution are becoming increasingly important to sustaining this growth over the coming years.
Mario Steta, Cort Brazelton, Colin Fain and Sarah Ilyas addressed these and other trends during the presentation of the IBO Global Blueberry Report 2026, analyzing the figures and changes shaping the evolution of the industry.
Five keys to sustaining growth
Mario Steta, President and Chairman of IBO, highlighted five aspects that, in his view, help explain where the industry stands today and what it will need to sustain its growth.
The first starts from a positive observation. As Steta put it, “the blueberry sector globally is doing something right,” pointing to consumption, market expansion and growth, as well as the way value has held up while volumes have increased.
As a second point, Steta highlighted the progress of segmentation and programs that are creating value for both growers and consumers. In his view, this evolution shows that strategies designed to differentiate the offer are working.
Execution is the third key and, for Steta, it is becoming increasingly important. Production alone is not enough; the industry must deliver consistently and maintain a balance between supply and demand. This goes hand in hand with the need to continue improving efficiency in a context of rising costs.
The fourth challenge is directly related to expanding supply: developing new markets capable of absorbing greater volumes. Steta pointed to opportunities in countries such as Brazil, India and Colombia, while also highlighting an evolving trade landscape, with China beginning to participate as an exporter during certain periods of the year.
Finally, he focused on intellectual property protection. In an industry where innovation and varietal development are playing an increasingly important role, Steta stressed the need for mechanisms that protect those investments and support continued innovation.
Beyond these five keys, he also identified other challenges that will continue to shape the sector’s development, including water availability, regulation and international trade conditions.
Planted area expands, with further growth still to materialize
Sarah Ilyas, responsible for data collection and analysis for the report and Data Scientist at Agronometrics, presented figures that illustrate both how much the sector has expanded and how much growth is already in the pipeline.
Global planted area surpassed 300,000 hectares in 2025, more than double the level of a decade ago.
Around 15% of that total had yet to reach mature commercial production. In absolute terms, this represents approximately 45,000 hectares already planted but not yet contributing their full production potential. Ilyas described this as “growth that’s planted, but hasn’t materialized yet.”
The report records 303,076 planted hectares in 2025, of which 257,971 hectares were in production.
Global cultivated blueberry production, meanwhile, reached 2.3 million tonnes in 2025, approaching three times the volume recorded a decade ago. Fresh fruit remains the main driver of this expansion and now accounts for close to 77% of global production, at 1.79 million tonnes.
Growth is also reshaping the geographic distribution of supply. The Americas account for just under half of global production, Asia-Pacific for roughly one-third, and Europe, the Middle East and Africa for slightly less than one-fifth. Asia-Pacific continues to expand rapidly, driven primarily by China, while Peru accounts for much of the growth in the Americas. In 2025, the three regions represented 46.8%, 34.7% and 18.5% of global production, respectively.
Five years ago, the Americas accounted for more than half of global planted area and production. According to Ilyas, its current share below 50% does not represent a temporary fluctuation, but rather a structural shift reflecting an increasingly global industry.
More volume with relatively stable prices
The increase in production and international trade has not, so far, been accompanied by an equivalent decline in prices. Colin Fain, Senior Editor of the report and CEO of Agronometrics, highlighted that IBO’s analysis of cross-border trade data shows sustained volume growth in recent years while prices have remained remarkably stable.
“But still, we’re seeing basically the translation of this growth in volume with the stable price,” Fain said, linking this performance to continued growth in demand.
Prices also showed greater stabilization in 2025 compared with the previous two years. Fain explained that “the lows are not as low” and that the highs, particularly around Peruvian supply, “are not as high.”
Cort Brazelton, Chief Editor of the report, IBO board member and co-founder, drew on this evolution to put the changes of the past decade into perspective. “If you would have told me 10 years ago that the global plantings would more than double, and the global volume would more than triple while pricing remains stable, or at least pricing trends on border crossings where we have the data available, remain stable, I would have told you you’re crazy.”
For Brazelton, the category’s performance shows that consumption has so far responded to increasing supply. Fresh fruit, which now represents more than three-quarters of global volume, remains the main growth driver and accounts for much of the opportunity the sector sees ahead.
A new benchmark for quality
Increasing supply is also raising the bar for fruit quality. Brazelton highlighted that, for much of the year, significant volumes of differentiated blueberries are already available at scale, generating different pricing dynamics and new opportunities for retail segmentation.
This evolution may also change what the market considers premium fruit. “I think today’s premium is tomorrow’s expectation in so many things,” Brazelton said, noting that characteristics that initially differentiate a product can become part of what consumers routinely expect as availability increases.
In this context, he pointed to large jumbo fruit with high Brix, moderate acidity and high firmness among the characteristics whose availability could continue to increase, alongside the development of new SKUs and consumption occasions.
But the industry has yet to see the true impact of a greater supply of high-quality fruit. Fain warned that the main regions driving this supply have not yet truly been tested by overproduction, and that the market has never experienced a situation where it is flush with high-quality fruit.
In his view, that moment could widen the gap between different quality levels. Once buyers have ready access to high-quality fruit that fits their programs, he argued, pressure will increase on fruit that fails to meet the same standards.
In this context, Fain returned to a phrase Brazelton had referenced earlier: “High quality fruit has a floor and other quality fruits have a cliff.”
The growing availability of better fruit therefore represents an opportunity to expand consumption, but also raises expectations for growers and marketers. As characteristics that differentiate a blueberry today become increasingly commonplace, the standard required to compete will continue to rise.
An additional million tonnes by 2029
IBO projects global cultivated blueberry production will approach 3.4 million tonnes by 2029, approximately one million more than in 2025. All regions are expected to increase production, although at different rates, with Asia-Pacific showing the strongest growth and progressively closing the gap with the Americas.
Part of this expansion will come from additional planted area and part from improvements in yields. However, the latest data show that growth continues to depend primarily on expanding planted area. In 2025, production increased by 11.2% year on year. Ilyas described this dynamic as growth that, so far, continues to be driven mainly by the expansion of planted area.
For Brazelton, adding roughly another million tonnes over the next four to five years is credible, but far from automatic. “I think an additional million metric tons over the next four to five years is credible,” he said, before noting that this growth requires land, water, labor, talent and capital — all resources that are becoming scarcer around the world.
The challenge will not simply be to produce that volume. Brazelton also emphasized the industry’s ability to generate demand and consistently deliver quality fruit, ensuring that additional production can find room in the market.
El Niño enters the projections
Weather is one of the factors capable of altering growth trajectories. Brazelton identified weather disruption as one of the major trends highlighted this year, arguing that the industry must increasingly come to terms with conditions that can no longer be treated as exceptional.
The current El Niño event also led IBO to take a conservative approach to its projections for Peru. Ilyas explained that for the 2026/27 season, the organization decided to hold projected volume flat against 2025/26 rather than allowing the model to automatically continue the growth trend observed in recent years.
Differences among forecasts regarding the intensity the event could reach led IBO to favor a conservative estimate rather than ignore the factor altogether. The report explains that this decision constrains the growth projected by the model for Peru.
IBO also retained the 2023/24 season in the historical series used to build its projections rather than excluding it as an outlier, as it had done in previous forecasts. El Niño severely disrupted that season, and including it also moderates the projected growth rate for Peru.
Fain added that the industry has yet to fully experience a scenario of abundant high-quality fruit. “We got really close in 2023 and then El Nino hit,” he said. Peru has remained relatively short in the seasons since for different reasons, meaning the industry has still not seen what happens when the market becomes “flush with high quality fruit.”
Growth alone will no longer be enough
The sector’s expansion is also driving the development of solutions specifically designed for blueberries. Brazelton highlighted advances in genetics, technology, biological solutions, machinery, robotics, artificial intelligence and pollination tools, linking this innovation ecosystem to the scale the industry has now achieved.
But having more tools and increasing production will not be enough on their own. “Showing up is no longer enough,” Brazelton said when discussing the outlook for the coming years.
The opportunity for further growth, he argued, remains very real. “The good news is new consumers are discovering blueberries, existing consumers are eating more blueberries.” The challenge will be to accompany that expansion with consistent quality and pricing that works for consumers.
“The easy days are behind us,” Brazelton warned. With the industry projected to add roughly another million tonnes by 2029, capturing the opportunities created by that growth will require everyone across the sector to “up our game.”
