Peru’s growth expectations for the 2026/27 blueberry season have been revised downward. Proarándanos released its fourth export forecast, estimating that the country will close the season with around 382,000 tonnes of fresh blueberries, 6% below the approximately 404,000 tonnes projected in August.
The revision also changes the comparison with the previous season. Proarándanos’ third forecast anticipated 5.6% growth compared with the 382,934 tonnes exported in 2025/26. With the September update, expected volumes are now virtually in line with the previous season.
According to the industry association, the adjustment reflects a worsening of climatic conditions compared with what had been anticipated in August. However, the effects are not yet visible in cumulative shipments: through week 35, Peru had exported around 95,000 tonnes, 48% more than the 64,000 tonnes recorded at the same point last season.
Proarándanos explains that this strong start is partly due to the consolidation of early varieties and an increase in planted area. The greater impact of the climatic conditions, however, is expected to be concentrated in the middle and final stages of the season.
Peak volumes also revised downward
One of the main changes in the new export curve can be seen in the week of highest volume. The fourth forecast places the peak in week 42, at approximately 16,559 tonnes, 16% below the 19,749 tonnes projected in August.
The figure would also be 21% lower than the approximately 20,900 tonnes recorded during the peak week of the 2025/26 season.
According to Proarándanos, this reduction is the clearest indication so far of the impact El Niño is having on productivity during the middle and final stages of the season.
The strong start to the season becomes particularly relevant when considering how much volume remains to be exported. In 2025/26, Peru shipped approximately 318,000 tonnes between week 36 and the end of the season. In the current season, around 286,000 tonnes would remain to be shipped to reach the new forecast, approximately 10% less than the volume exported during the same period of the previous season.
A scenario that had already factored in the risk of El Niño
The potential impact of the climate phenomenon on Peru’s season had already been incorporated into international industry outlooks.
The IBO Global Blueberry Report 2026 held Peru’s projected production volume for 2026/27 at the same level as in 2025/26 due to the expected impacts of El Niño. The report team noted that there were differing forecasts across the industry and that, although its estimate could be considered conservative, it chose to factor the climate phenomenon into its model rather than exclude it.
The report also retained the El Niño-affected 2023/24 season in the historical data used for its projections. As a result, that season was not treated as an outlier to be excluded from the calculation, a decision that helped moderate the growth projected for Peru.
However, the IBO cautioned that uncertainty remained over the magnitude of the impact in 2026. The experience of 2023 showed differences depending on genetics and growing location: the most negative effects were seen in varieties that were not truly zero-chill and struggled with bud and flower differentiation under high temperatures, while zero-chill evergreen varieties performed better. Fruit grown further south in Peru also performed better on average.
The report also notes that the Peruvian industry has been moving toward both new genetics and increased production in southern growing areas, “although it was still unclear how much these changes could mitigate the impact of another climate-related shock on volumes.”
Organic forecast falls to 25,000 tonnes
The revision also extends to the organic segment. Proarándanos lowered its season-end forecast to around 25,000 tonnes, 18% below the approximately 31,000 tonnes projected in August.
The change is not limited to volume. The peak export week is now expected to shift to week 48, at approximately 1,184 tonnes. In the third forecast, the peak was expected in week 42, at around 1,523 tonnes, while in the previous season it occurred in week 40 and reached approximately 1,900 tonnes.
Proarándanos prepares a fifth update
The industry association warned that climatic anomalies have continued to occur consistently and therefore does not rule out a further downward revision in its next update.
Proarándanos will continue to consolidate information provided by producers and exporters on a weekly basis. In October, it will conduct a new review of the production and export outlook, with a view to publishing a fifth update for the 2026/27 season.
