Spring in Chile will begin under the influence of an El Niño event that continues to strengthen. According to the latest Agroclimatic Bulletin from the Chilean Meteorological Directorate (DMC), sea surface temperature anomalies reached +1.8°C in the Niño 3.4 region during August, while projections indicate that the event will continue to intensify toward the end of the year.
For the September-October-November period, the outlook anticipates above-normal rainfall from parts of the Coquimbo Region to Los Ríos, covering a broad area that includes Chile’s main blueberry-growing regions. However, temperature patterns vary considerably: warmer-than-usual mornings are expected from northern Chile to northern Maule, while minimum temperatures are projected to be below normal farther south. Afternoon temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to be cooler from southern Valparaíso across much of central-southern and southern Chile.
The change of season also follows a winter marked by lower chill accumulation. All locations analyzed by the DMC between Atacama and Los Lagos recorded a chill-hour deficit as of August 31 compared with their historical averages.
The DMC warns that insufficient chill accumulation could delay the release from dormancy and, consequently, budbreak and flowering. It therefore recommends closely monitoring phenological development in fruit crops.
Conditions shift further south
In central Chile, the outlook combines wetter conditions with predominantly warmer minimum temperatures and cooler maximum temperatures across much of the area. For locations such as San Fernando, Curicó, Chillán and Concepción, the DMC projects rainfall above the ranges considered normal for the three-month period.
Against this backdrop, the bulletin draws attention to water and moisture management in orchards. Its recommendations include adjusting irrigation schedules according to rainfall, maintaining drainage systems and avoiding practices that cause significant plant wounds during persistently wet periods due to the risk of fungal pathogens. It also recommends increased monitoring for pests and diseases.
Farther south, the picture changes. From La Araucanía to Los Lagos, normal to wetter-than-normal conditions are expected, accompanied by minimum temperatures ranging from normal to cooler than usual and predominantly cooler maximum temperatures. In sensitive areas, the DMC recommends remaining alert to potential frost events and assessing frost protection measures, while closely monitoring daily weather forecasts.
Moisture will be another factor to watch. The bulletin recommends maintaining preventive management of fungal diseases and monitoring drainage and surface runoff in areas prone to greater water accumulation.
The outlook provides a general trend for the September-October-November period, but it does not predict when rainfall, frost or other specific events may occur. The DMC emphasizes that this is a seasonal climate outlook rather than a weather forecast, meaning that daily or extreme events should be monitored using short- and medium-range forecasts.
