The forecast for Peru’s blueberry season has been revised downward once again. Proarándanos now estimates that the country will close the 2026/27 season with approximately 366,000 tons of fresh blueberry exports, 4.2% below the 382,000 tons forecast in September and 4.4% below the 383,000 tons exported during the previous season.
The new estimate once again changes the outlook for the end of the season. In September, the association’s fourth forecast had lowered the estimate from around 404,000 to 382,000 tons, bringing expected volumes closer to the 2025/26 result. The fifth update cuts another 16,000 tons from the forecast, placing the estimate for the current season below the previous season for the first time.
Proarándanos also notes that this scenario comes despite Peru having approximately 15% more hectares in production. According to the association, recent weeks have confirmed a downward trend, with a significant decline in export volumes.
Cumulative exports remain above the previous season
Through week 38, Peru had exported 136,000 tons of fresh blueberries, 18.7% more than the 115,000 tons recorded during the same period of the 2025/26 season. However, Proarándanos warns that the cumulative figure does not yet reflect the shift observed in recent weeks.
For the period from week 39 through the end of the season, the new forecast projects exports of 229,000 tons. This would be 14.2% below the 268,000 tons shipped during the same period last season.
The next eight weeks would show the largest gap
The gap widens when looking at the next eight weeks. For this period, Proarándanos projects 108,000 tons, compared with 156,000 tons exported during the same period of the 2025/26 season. The difference amounts to 48,000 tons, equivalent to a 31.2% decline.
Unlike the previous season, the latest update does not project a pronounced peak during this period. The association expects a plateau, with volumes averaging around 13,500 tons per week.
Organic segment also sees volume adjustments
For organic blueberries, the season-end forecast stands at 24,900 tons. The peak is projected for week 47, at around 1,100 tons, below the 1,900 tons recorded at the peak of the previous season, which occurred in week 40.
Proarándanos points to a greater impact from El Niño
In its update, Proarándanos says the latest data confirm that the impact of El Niño has been “more severe than anticipated,” contrasting with the strong pace recorded at the beginning of the season.
Against this backdrop, the association said it will publish a new update in two weeks and will continue issuing reports more frequently while these conditions persist.
